Dubious Battles: Aggression, Defeat, & the International System by John Arquilla

Author:John Arquilla [Arquilla, John]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Technology & Engineering, Military Science
ISBN: 9780844817347
Google: Ls69sx1ACOgC
Goodreads: 1876119
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 1992-01-15T08:18:47+00:00

I II III

Variable strength measure used COW index Population GNP

Intercept .29** .26* .42

“Skill” (battle death ratio) .52*** .52***

“Strength I” (composite index) .14*

“Strength II” (population) .09

“Strength HI” (GNP) .11

Prediction 93% 80% 73%

Model chi-square 25.2*** 13.01** 5.03

Significance levels:

* p < .10;

** p < .05;

*** p < .01; N = 30.

This set of representative tests employs “relative ratio” quantitative variables. No significant changes in results occur when qualitative operationalizations are used, although Test I prediction reduces to 90%. Tests II and III employ varying measures of strength, neither of which becomes significant. When skill is omitted, as in Test III, the statistical model loses its significance(this holds true across a wide variety of tests of land wars).

Note. The intercept is the point at which the logistic curve meets the “y” axis (see Figure 4.1).

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